Dr. Ali Ahmed Abdul Marzouq / Iraqi Researcher Specializing in Security and Military Policies
June 13, 2025, marked a decisive strategic turning point, pushing the region into an unprecedented power imbalance with the outbreak of direct military confrontation between Iran and Israel. This confrontation effectively ended the pattern of indirect engagement and opened the door to overt, large-scale conflict. Within hours, drones and precision-guided missiles struck vital targets on both sides, accompanied by highly sophisticated cyberattacks that penetrated critical infrastructure and approached the operating systems of Iranian nuclear reactors. This development reflected a fundamental transformation not only in tactics but also in the very nature of regional deterrence, signaling the onset of a phase that transcends traditional conflict calculations.
The gravity of this confrontation, however, lies not solely in its military dimension but in its profound geopolitical reverberations, which spread across the Middle East and impacted the international energy system, threatening the economic security of neighboring states—most notably Iraq. Although Iraq was not a direct party to the conflict, it found itself on the fringes of the theater of operations, bearing the weight of strategic consequences due to its near-total dependence on oil revenues and a one-directional export network vulnerable to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
This reality is inseparable from the strategic significance of the Strait of Hormuz, which, despite its narrow geographical scope, has become a leverage point in the hands of actors who do not prioritize Iraq’s interests. Even limited escalation could ignite a comprehensive financial crisis in Iraq, reshaping the country’s economic and political landscape—not merely as a state affected by events, but as one effectively held hostage by them. Each increase in the pace of Israeli–Iranian confrontation, therefore, represents not only an abstract security threat but a concrete test of Iraq’s ability to safeguard its vital economic lifeline and uphold sovereign capacity in one of the world’s most volatile regions.
The critical question arising from this precarious moment is thus: Does Iraq possess effective strategic alternatives—at acceptable costs—for exporting its oil beyond the control of the Strait of Hormuz? Or does the absence of a sovereign export network leave it exposed to danger with every regional upheaval?
