Research Department
The importance of electoral public opinion polls generally lies in their ability to help understand and predict voter behavior, identify voting trends among various social segments and geographical areas, and provide valuable data to decision-makers and candidates seeking to understand voters and adjust their strategies. Polls also help forecast final results before their official announcement (predicting election outcomes), and they reveal the social and demographic characteristics of voters—such as age, gender, and region—and how these characteristics influence their voting decisions (understanding voter behavior). They also display variations in voting trends across different social groups and geographic regions (identifying voting disparities). Polls additionally supply candidates with vital information about voters, enabling them to design their electoral campaigns effectively (supporting candidate campaigns). After elections, post-voting surveys (exit polls) offer the sole source for analyzing and interpreting election results and voting trends (interpreting results). Polls further contribute to measuring public opinion on specific issues related to elections or broader public affairs, such as legislation and provided services (measuring public opinion).
For this reason, Al-Bayan Center for Studies and Planning has routinely conducted public opinion polls preceding every parliamentary election cycle, with the aim of identifying respondents’ orientations, their voting and participation intentions, and the entities and individuals they intend to support. For the current elections, the Center conducted two public opinion polls: the first in July, and the second in October—approximately three months later. Both polls revealed that the participation rate in the current elections would rise compared to the turnout in the 2021 elections.
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