Turkey is strategically seeking to capitalize on regional and international developments in order to secure economic, political, and military gains. It seeks to exploit the Kirkuk–Ceyhan pipeline for domestic purposes, with reports indicating it is already using the pipeline to transport oil within Turkey. The issue of transportation is expected to be linked to a broader set of projects it is implementing in Iraq, including the Development Road, electricity transmission initiatives, and other infrastructure projects. It is anticipated that Turkey will extend the pipeline further south to reach the Basra oil fields rather than stopping at Kirkuk. In addition, Turkey is expected to increase transit fees through its territory. Thus, Iraqi policymakers will need to employ economic diplomacy with considerable skill to avert any strategic harm to Iraq’s core national security.
Turkey is well aware of Iraq’s intentions to diversify its energy markets, particularly after the twelve-day conflict, which heightened Baghdad’s concerns about a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the consequent disruption of its oil exports. Accordingly, Ankara views itself as the suitable partner to diversify Iraq’s markets toward Western and Eastern Europe, and even the United States. Turkey also aspires to obstruct China’s expanding role in the Iraqi energy sector, capitalizing on the tensions between the Trump administration and Beijing. For this reason, Turkey is expected to engage actively in exploration, extraction, and transportation of Iraqi oil and gas.
