Mustafa al-Saray / Director of Research at Al-Bayan Center for Studies and Planning
The 2025 Iraqi parliamentary elections revealed a new phase of political and social transformation in Iraq. Their preliminary results reflected notable changes in voter orientations and a broad reshaping of power balances among major political blocs, in addition to fundamental shifts in the representation of religious and ethnic minorities.
The electoral race concluded amid significant celebration by all sides, despite the political or social boycott adopted by certain social forces, as well as the presence of some qualitative losses among individuals and within the Iraqi social composition. Yet these surprises did not escape the attention of specialists experienced in reading street indicators prior to consultations behind closed doors. It may be said, however, that these elections produced a set of important findings capable of signaling profound shifts within Iraqi society—developments that should draw the attention of stakeholders before they translate into a reality that may prove painful for some and pleasing for others.
This study seeks to analyze the most prominent of these transformations by examining the lessons learned from the electoral experience across a set of variables, such as the decline of civil forces and traditional figures, the rise of major political forces, and the reshaping of the map of minority representation.
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