Ammar Yassin – researcher in peace and conflict studies
in an act that can be described as an incalculable adventure; Yevgeny Prijovin, commander of the unofficially recognized semi-regular Wagner Group and strongly involved in Russia’s extended military operation in Ukraine, By ratcheting up operationally and not just criticizing Russia’s military leadership and the person of Russian President Vladimir Putin, even made the reverse move into Russia and took control of some military installations in the Rostov region, Declaring a state of rebellion and threatening to continue escalating by heading directly toward the capital, Moscow.
Although Prijogen’s “adventure” captured the world’s attention and some overestimated what was happening then as the throes of a large-scale coup in Russia that would change the entire map of the Russia-West conflict; However, it only lasted about 24 hours, amid double restraint and a very cautious move on both sides throughout the crisis hours. until the announcement of a personal initiative by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to mediate between Putin and Prijojin to end the state of rebellion, Until hours later, the Belarusian mediation settled the situation without firing a single bullet from both sides of the crisis.
Declared and confidential items, Specific provisions for the settlement of the crisis have been announced and have been ratified by Putin and Prijojin, respectively. Immediately end the state of rebellion, host Prijovin in Belarus, and return Wagner’s forces to their camps outside Rostov, in exchange for the Russian non-prosecution of Prijovin and his soldiers in the event of the rebellion, while opening the door for those who did not participate from Wagner to join the ranks of the regular Russian forces through contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defence and then to integrate in a codified manner and harmonize the situation
The perception of other items that have not yet been disclosed may be reinforced by the unanswered answers to many questions, chief among which is: why did the response come so swiftly and so welcoming from both sides to the Belarusian mediation offer? What promises and guarantees did Prijogen get in exchange for accepting to end his rebellion immediately and go to Belarus? What is the nature of Belarus hosting Prijogen and Wagner’s forces participating in the case of the insurgency? Why is Belarus taking this step as it is indirectly protected from Russia and a key supporter of it in its military operation in Ukraine? What are the implications of Belarus’ performance in the mediation role between the two sides on its relationship with its European neighbors and the West in general? And what would compensate her for a possible strain on her relationship with her European neighbors as a result of it mediation? All these questions and more necessitate the existence of undeclared items that are not disclosed for the considerations of both parties; Reimbursing Putin for what happened, giving Prijogen more leverage after he was neutralized, and providing guarantees that Belarus will maintain security and stability locally and regionally.
