{"id":12890,"date":"2026-06-29T15:21:59","date_gmt":"2026-06-29T12:21:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bayancenter.org\/en\/?p=12890"},"modified":"2026-06-29T15:21:59","modified_gmt":"2026-06-29T12:21:59","slug":"iraq-and-the-new-calculations-of-war-a-precautionary-reading-of-iraqi-national-security-threats-armament-options-and-rebuilding-deterrence-2026-2035","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bayancenter.org\/en\/2026\/06\/12890\/","title":{"rendered":"Iraq and the New Calculations of War: A Precautionary Reading of Iraqi National Security Threats, Armament Options, and Rebuilding Deterrence (2026-2035)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dr. Amer Abd Rasan Jaafar Al-Moussawi\/ Former Chief of Experts at the National Security Advisory and Former Deputy Head of the Intelligence Service<\/strong><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

This paper argues that the war on Iran, which began on February 28, 2026, and ended later, revealed a structural shift in the nature of contemporary warfare, with direct implications for the Iraqi national security environment. The war demonstrated that modern conflicts are no longer confined to traditional confrontations between states, but have increasingly taken the form of data-centric, attritional hybrid operations characterized by the intensive use of drones. In this new environment, cost asymmetry, flexibility of command structures, speed of adaptation, and intelligence integration have become factors that may rival, or perhaps exceed, the importance of conventional military superiority.<\/p>\n

The paper also analyzes how this war revealed the limits of relying on rapid coercive victory, the rising importance of low-cost autonomous systems, the strategic value of data and intelligence integration, as well as the vulnerability of critical infrastructure to multi-domain attacks. Furthermore, the paper examines Iraq’s exposure to the secondary and tertiary effects of this conflict, including energy disruptions, financial pressures, indirect strikes, the regional arms race, and the potential resurgence of technologically adaptive extremist actors in Syria and on the western approaches to Iraq.<\/p>\n

The study proposes an Iraqi precautionary framework for the period 2026-2035, based on building a multi-layered air defense, developing a national drone capability, establishing a national data architecture, integrating intelligence work, protecting critical infrastructure, developing strategic deception capabilities, and nurturing young talent in the fields of artificial intelligence, cyber capabilities, and modern security studies. The paper concludes that future Iraqi deterrence will not depend solely on the quality of weapons Iraq acquires, but rather on its ability to build a resilient state that possesses an institutional structure capable of learning, adapting, and enduring in the era of smart, networked, and open-ended warfare.<\/p>\n

Download PDF<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dr. Amer Abd Rasan Jaafar Al-Moussawi\/ Former Chief of Experts at the National Security Advisory and Former Deputy Head of the Intelligence Service This paper argues that the war on Iran, which began on February 28, 2026, and ended later, revealed a structural shift in the nature of contemporary warfare, with direct implications for the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":12892,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[534,1731,17,4,1734],"tags":[758,1894,45,1890,422,1893,1891,1892],"class_list":["post-12890","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-domestic-and-foreign-policy","category-research-department","category-research-papers","category-security-defence","category-security-and-military","tag-al-bayan-center","tag-dr-amer-abdul-rasen-al-mousawi","tag-iraq","tag-iraqi-military-armament","tag-national-security","tag-the-american-iranian-conflict","tag-the-israeli-iranian-war","tag-the-new-war"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.bayancenter.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Iraq-and-the-new-calculations-of-war.webp","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p6Y2nv-3lU","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bayancenter.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12890","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bayancenter.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bayancenter.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bayancenter.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bayancenter.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12890"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.bayancenter.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12890\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12893,"href":"https:\/\/www.bayancenter.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12890\/revisions\/12893"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bayancenter.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12892"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bayancenter.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12890"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bayancenter.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12890"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bayancenter.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12890"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}