This public opinion poll was designed to include as many social classes in Iraq and consisted of sixteen core questions addressed to 2,310 respondents (or sample units), drawn from a sample of 38,000 mobile phone numbers. The mobile phone numbers were randomly selected from the National Database covering all 18 Governorates, and representative of the total population of Iraq, who number in excess of 36 million people. The sample units correlated well at the national level in terms of the percentage population of the respective governorate as against the corresponding sample percentage. The questions included gender variations, age distribution, standard of living, educational attainment, type of work, ethnicity, as well as nine pivotal questions which addressed the objectives and topics of the poll. Projections for the Iraqi population were adopted for each governorate based on the latest data published by the Central Statistical Organisation of the Ministry of Planning.
The current poll delves into the real attitudes of Iraqi society, in all its sections, ethnicities and governorates in order to reveal attitudes towards the following matters:
1. Updating of voter data.
2. Participation in elections and whether or not intends to vote.
3. Voter preferences for candidates:
a) Parties, blocs or independents?
b) Do voters prefer parties, blocs, or independents with:
• Religious / sectarian agendas.
• ethnic agendas.
• Tribal / clan agendas.
• Civil / secular agendas.
• National / local agendas.
4. What priorities do the respondents want to see in the election manifestos? What are the main characteristics they look for in the candidates? Which electoral reforms do they want to see happen? And other searching questions, covering all the Governorates of Iraq, in order to shed light on voter attitudes towards the upcoming elections (governorate councils and parliamentary.)
Data from the current poll was analysed to reveal the attitudes, views, opinions and personal experiences of the Iraqi citizen regarding the whole electoral process. We utilised the analytical descriptive approach to present the study through a social survey of a sample of individuals of different ages starting from 18 years and included those aged 66 years and over, representing a cross-section of Iraqi society, different geographical areas and its diverse cultures, in a manner that enabled us to make calculated generalisations for the whole country.
The idea of conducting a poll by the Centre; the design and encoding of the questionnaire and the training of pollsters on its use; the review and scrutiny of data, production of tables and the design of graphs and relevant annotations; through to the final findings and recommendations was all the work of Dr. Ahmed Kassem Muften, Sociologist and Lecturer at the University of Baghdad – Faculty of Arts – Department of Sociology; ably assisted by Dr. Khaled Hantoush Sajet, Sociologist, with the filtering, classification and tabulation of the preliminary data .
This poll is intended to provide us with an opportunity to determine, with factual objectivity, what is on the mind of the electorate about the following: the upcoming elections, development planning, political manifestos and decision-making at all levels; so as to enable us produce an objective and detailed assessment of the whole electoral process. The quota sample method was employed which divides the respondent population or its corresponding sample into classes and leaves the standardised questionnaire the freedom to choose sample elements provided that the numerical and qualitative limits of the sample are met.
Therefore, the sample may be considered truly random; distinguished by its accurate representation of the population with the ability to produce realistic and truthful answers about of Iraqi society.